An advisor to the National Malaria Elimination Program in Bangladesh, Dr. Md. Mushfiqur Rahman is the driving force behind a cutting-edge project to build the country’s first Climate-Informed Early Warning Surveillance System powered by artificial intelligence (AI) for climate-sensitive diseases. By streamlining disease surveillance and integrating health and climate data, the project aims to vastly improve Bangladesh’s ability to detect and respond to outbreaks. As climate change fuels the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, addressing outbreaks at speed is key to saving lives. 

What health risks are associated with climate change in Bangladesh, and specifically, which climate-sensitive diseases are on the rise? 

RAHMAN: As you know, extreme weather events are a big problem in Bangladesh. Floods, cyclones, and heat waves are very common in our country. There is also an increased risk of disease, like malaria and dengue, associated with this climate risk.   

We don’t know for sure whether the increase in vector-borne diseases in our country is caused by climate change, but we do know that the vectors responsible for the development of malaria and dengue are climate-sensitive — that is, they are sensitive to temperature and humidity. These weather conditions impact the longevity of the vectors, as well as the longevity of the parasite inside the vector. The optimal temperature for the development of the parasite, as well as the virus inside the vector, is between 15 and 35℃. That means as temperatures increase, so do the number of cases.  

How did you choose which diseases to prioritize when building an early warning system?  

RAHMAN: I mentioned malaria and dengue, but there are many other climate-sensitive diseases in Bangladesh — like acute waterborne diarrhea, chikungunya, cholera, influenza, rotavirus, and typhoid fever. Because we are not in a position to include all the diseases in our early warning system, we initially prioritized three: malaria, dengue, and acute waterborne diarrhea.   

This project is supported by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, which led us to include malaria from the very beginning. We then selected dengue, in part because the department responsible for the malaria elimination program in Bangladesh is also responsible for dengue, hopefully giving us an opportunity to control two diseases at once. We then chose to include acute waterborne diarrhea because it is extremely prevalent in Bangladesh.  

We’re now expanding our focus to include tuberculosis, which is a very big problem in our country and a natural fit given our partnership with the Global Fund. While TB hasn’t always been closely associated with climate change, our partners at the Institute for Health Modeling and Climate Solutions (IMACS) helped us identify ways in which TB is climate sensitive.  

Can you share more about the Climate-Informed Early Warning Surveillance System being built in Bangladesh? To start: what is an early warning system, and how can it help us improve disease prevention, detection and response? 

RAHMAN: The main focus of the early warning system we’re building is to strengthen and standardize disease surveillance at different levels.  

Right now, different organizations are responsible for different types of diseases. For example, the National Malaria Elimination Program implements malaria activities while other groups are responsible for dengue and acute waterborne diarrhea. That also means different reporting systems are being used for different diseases. 

Our goal is to have all reports for our priority diseases come through to one server; in this case we’ll use the Central Malaria Management Information System. This includes reports across all levels — from the national level to the district, sub-district, health facility, and even the community or village level — which will allow for real time reporting on these diseases. Real time meaning daily, weekly, or monthly reporting depending on the disease.   

Another complementary component of the project is the development of the early warning and response. With centralized reporting, a threshold can be set for each disease, and an early warning alert created once a disease crosses the established threshold. That alert can then be disseminated to the district and sub-district levels along with recommendations from national health authorities to guide the response.

Can you share more about the partners involved and what makes the Bangladesh model unique?  

RAHMAN: Because we are bringing many organizations together that currently do separate — but similar — work, we have many partners and collaborators in this project.  

The lead agency is the National Malaria Elimination Program and the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research is the technical lead. The MIS Division of the Directorate General of Health Services will act as a data hub for reporting and information system management while the Bangladesh Meteorological Department will be responsible for sharing weather data. There are also implementing partners at the field level, including BRAC, and the United Nations Office for Project Services provides management support. IMACS is providing the global technology and technical assistance, and of course, we are grateful to receive funding for this project from the Global Fund.   

The coordination and data integration we’re doing among so many partners is really unique in a country like Bangladesh.  

What challenges have you encountered while building an effective and sustainable early warning system? 

RAHMAN: There are many challenges. It’s tough to get organizations to work together, especially because every organization has its own mandate and is comfortable working independently. That’s the first challenge.

The second is related to data accessibility. Like I mentioned, data is currently confined to different organizations and is not accessible to everyone involved in this process. Another challenge is the capacity of our workforce, which has limited experience with this kind of early warning and response system. And at the same time, our digital infrastructure is not really equipped to handle this level of activity, which might impact the sustainability of the system we’re building.  

Where do you hope to see the project go in 2026, what’s the next milestone? 

RAHMAN: We are in the process of finalizing a memorandum of understanding among the groups involved in the project. Once the MOU is in place, there will be a mandate for each organization to continue implementing this early warning system.  

We are still in discussions with all the organizations. They categorically agreed, but concerns have been raised as the draft MOU has been circulated within departments. I’m hopeful that it will be resolved and the MOU will be signed so there is a clear mandate to continue this work.   

And while we have funding secured through June 2026, we are looking for support from other organizations to continue this project. With additional funding, we can ensure this Climate-Informed Early Warning Surveillance System is fully implemented in Bangladesh.  

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ABOUT IMACS

The Institute for Health Modeling and Climate Solutions (IMACS), hosted by Malaria No More, is a center of excellence dedicated to building predictive intelligence for the world’s most vulnerable health systems. IMACS brings together advanced data science, artificial intelligence, and operational modeling to help countries anticipate, prepare for, and respond to infectious disease threats. Working at the intersection of high-resolution data infrastructure, machine learning, and public health decision-making, IMACS partners with governments and global institutions to strengthen surveillance, sharpen early warning capabilities, and accelerate evidence-driven response.